Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is expected to lose momentum in 2026 as continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz weighs on shipments, even though long-term demand remains firmly on an upward trajectory, according to Shell’s latest annual LNG outlook.
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The energy giant warned that if shipping through the strategically important waterway is not fully restored within the next three months, global LNG trade is likely to remain largely unchanged this year after reaching 422 million metric tons in 2025. Before the conflict, Shell had projected continued growth in LNG volumes during 2026.
The ongoing conflict has disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily restricting nearly one-fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply and creating fresh uncertainty across global energy markets.
Despite the near-term setback, Shell remains optimistic about the industry’s long-term prospects. The company forecasts global LNG demand will increase by approximately 65% by 2050, reaching nearly 700 million metric tons annually, driven primarily by expanding energy needs across Asia.
Growing electricity consumption, industrial expansion, the shift away from coal, and the rapid development of energy-intensive data centers are expected to fuel much of that growth over the coming decades.
Shell’s President of Integrated Gas, Cederic Cremers, said the Middle East conflict created significant disruption across global energy markets but noted that the LNG sector has demonstrated resilience by adapting to changing market conditions.
The company credited the industry’s ability to withstand the crisis to expanding LNG production capacity, additional regasification infrastructure, and improved supply diversification.
New liquefaction projects in North America, stronger output from existing facilities, and softer LNG demand in parts of Asia have helped offset supply losses from the Middle East, reducing the overall impact of the Hormuz disruption.
The conflict has nevertheless reshaped the short-term market.
Damage to Qatar’s export infrastructure, delays to new production projects, and higher LNG prices have increased pressure on import-dependent countries, particularly in Asia.
Price-sensitive buyers in South and Southeast Asia are increasingly exploring alternative fuel sources, including domestic natural gas and coal, as elevated LNG prices strain purchasing budgets.
Market data also points to weaker demand. According to Kpler, LNG imports across Asia declined by nearly 4% during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.
Although spot LNG prices in Asia climbed above $20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) during the height of the Middle East crisis, prices remained well below the record highs experienced following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. More recently, prices have eased to around $15.35 per mmBtu as hopes grow for a diplomatic resolution that could stabilize shipping through Hormuz.
Looking further ahead, Shell expects the global LNG market to receive a major boost from new export capacity.
Approximately 180 million metric tons of additional annual LNG production is expected to come online by 2030, improving supply availability and supporting demand growth in emerging markets.
South and Southeast Asia are forecast to account for roughly 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 as declining domestic gas production forces countries across the region to rely more heavily on imported fuel.
Shell estimates emerging Asian economies alone will require around 300 million metric tons of LNG annually by mid-century to meet rising gas demand.
In developed markets such as Japan, growing electricity consumption from artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers is emerging as a new driver of natural gas demand.
China, however, presents a different picture. While overall natural gas consumption is expected to continue growing, Shell believes LNG imports into the world’s largest LNG market will decline this year as the Hormuz disruption alters supply patterns.
Europe is also expected to remain a major LNG consumer, with imported gas continuing to play a critical role in maintaining energy security and balancing renewable power generation as domestic production declines.
To satisfy projected global demand, Shell says the industry will need another wave of investment throughout the 2030s and 2040s.
Beyond projects already under construction, the company estimates that an additional 200 million metric tons of annual LNG export capacity will be required to ensure future supply keeps pace with rising global energy demand.
