M&A advisory firm Tenney Group is calling for a material ramp in transportation and logistics deal flow. “All indications lead to a highly active 2026 and to record-breaking M&A activity in 2027,” the firm’s mid-year report said. That would mark a meaningful reversal from the past three years.
The report noted a big increase in interest and preliminary activity, which should soon lead to more deals reaching the finish line. It showed global deal volume was flat year over year through the first half of 2026 at 566 transactions. However, many buyers and investment firms are facing an urgency to deploy capital and can no longer remain on the sidelines.
Tenney Group said M&A activity continues to be “characterized by smaller, highly specialized transactions,” but highlighted that the space is “increasingly attracting institutional capital,” which will lead to “larger, more transformational opportunities.”
Tepid freight demand, elevated interest rates, the Middle East conflict and a still-volatile trade landscape remain the overhangs. However, there’s an expectation among M&A participants for a material step down in inflation (fuel prices) and interest rates over the medium term, easing the path to deal closings. The report noted that any material inflection in freight demand could tip the scales, allowing owners that wouldn’t sell in a down market the chance to finally exit.
The report also noted some changes in the way participants are approaching deals following the Supreme Court’s broker liability ruling (Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II). The landmark ruling widened liability exposure for freight brokers found negligent in their driver hiring practices.
“Buyers and sellers interested in transportation and logistics M&A are getting ahead of potential deals by evaluating the allocation of risk in contracts, discussing insurance renewal scenarios for broker liability policies, considering higher insurance limits, reviewing carrier vetting policies, and addressing consistency between policies and practices at brokers,” said Mark Scudder, CEO at law firm Scudder Hornung-Scherr, in the report.
Cross-border operators tied to a growing nearshoring trend are becoming “premium acquisition targets,” Tenney Group said when discussing its predictions for the back half of the year. This group includes carriers, customs brokers, transloading providers and specialized 3PLs.
“What to watch: Buyers are prioritizing operators with deep compliance capabilities and proven cross-border execution,” said Ashesh Pansuria, director at Tenney Group. “For owners, those strengths may command a meaningful valuation premium as nearshoring trends continue to accelerate.”
Beau McGinnis, vice president at Tenney Group, sees relay, or hub-to-hub, networks becoming more valuable as autonomous trucking transitions to full commercialization. He said the driverless technology works best in these configurations.
More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:
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