Big Blue is forecasting a big finish in 2026. And it has the unsettled Middle East in part to thank.
Maersk revised its financial guidance sharply upwards as peak season demand swells out of Asia and spot market rates continue to climb.
“Continued strong demand in the container market, particularly in the Far East, and a recent sustained increase in spot market rates means that A.P. Moller–Maersk (OTC: AMKBY) upgrades its guidance for full year 2026,” the Copenhagen-based company said Monday.
The world’s second-largest container carrier now expects underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in a range of $8-$10 billion. That’s up from previous estimates of $4.5-$7 billion.
Maersk forecast underlying earnings before interest and taxes of $2-$4 billion, up from a loss of $1.5-$1 billion.
The company narrowed expectations of negative free cash flow to $1.5 billion from $3 billion.
“This is based on a volume growth outlook for the global container market of about 4% (previously 2%-4%) for full-year 2026,” Maersk stated.
Ocean carriers got an unexpected boost from the effects of the U.S. war with Iran in the Persian Gulf that began Feb. 28. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on refining choked global supplies and sent the price of crude oil and fuel soaring. The conflict trapped thousands of ships in the Gulf region, helped push up rates, and led carriers to implement an array of emergency surcharges.
Rates were also buoyed by frontloading by shippers anxious to avoid tariff chaos and expected price hikes by Asia manufacturers.
Maersk in the weeks after the start of the war petitioned the Federal Maritime Commission to waive its 30-day waiting period for the implementation of emergency fuel surcharges. But the U.S.-based regulator three times rejected Maersk’s requests.
The company will release second quarter earnings on August 13.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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