US freight forwarder CH Robinson has warned that airline capacity additions are not necessarily resulting in lower aircraft utilisation levels and drops in airfreight rates.
The forwarder said that belly capacity is showing signs of stabilising in certain lanes, while freighter schedules are improving and Middle East carrier connectivity from the Indian subcontinent region has recovered.
“In normal conditions, these capacity improvements would point toward lower pricing and easier access to space,” the forwarder said.
“Instead, restored and incremental capacity is being absorbed quickly in several lanes, while operating constraints are limiting how much space becomes bookable.”
CH Robinson explained that on Asia-US lanes, available capacity is being absorbed by sustained demand, while Australasia/Oceania capacity additions are being taken up by seasonal and commodity-driven demand.
The forwarder added: “While Middle East connectivity from the Indian Subcontinent has improved, it hasn’t automatically created open space on every departure.
“Load factors remain high, meaning many flights are already operating close to full. Payload constraints are more origin-specific, particularly in parts of the Indian Subcontinent.
“As a result, capacity may appear available in the schedule but still be difficult to secure for a specific shipment on a specific departure.”
As well as the Asia, Europe and Middle East capacity additions failing to lower utilisation levels, they are also not resulting in broad rate declines as the extra space is being quickly absorbed.
“Shipment spillover and retail replenishment are supporting volumes, while electronics, healthcare, perishables, and premium commodity exports are adding to demand,” CH Robinson said. “Rates are stable to firm, with only mild softening possible if end-of-year demand normalises faster than expected.”
The same is true on Asia-US lanes where AI, semiconductor, and other high-tech cargo continue to support exports from Taiwan, China, and Southeast Asia, while FIFA World Cup-related cargo demand through to 19 July is also adding incremental volume into the US, Mexico, and Canada.
Elsewhere, CH Robinson said that longer routings on the Asia–Europe trade were also limiting capacity where flights continue to operate in and around the Middle East.
“Demand from China, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, and Korea remains steady, while longer routings around restricted Middle East airspace, higher fuel burn, and fuel availability reduce how much capacity shippers can actually use,” the forwarder said.
“If those conditions persist, the lane may continue to feel tighter than published schedules suggest, particularly when larger consolidations or time-sensitive cargo compete for preferred departures.
“This may not appear as a clear schedule reduction. It is more likely to show up as carriers being less willing to take lower-yield cargo and accepting fewer bookings close to departure. This leaves less margin for cargo that must move on a specific flight or departure and fewer recovery options.”
Last week, data firm Xeneta released its monthly airfreight market figures showing that in June demand was up 7% year on year while capacity increased by the lower amount of 3%.
Xeneta said the big surprise in air cargo performance this year continues to be AI volumes that are making up for a fall in e-commerce traffic, air cargo’s main growth engine over the past two to three years.
