CMA CGM is on course to overtake Maersk as the world’s second-largest containerline by the end of 2027.
Speaking to French business daily Les Echos last week, CMA CGM chairman and chief executive Rodolphe Saadé said the Marseille-headquartered carrier is on track to move past its Danish rival within the next 18 months.
The end-2027 date might appear conservative. Based on Linerlytica data, CMA CGM will overtake Maersk by July 2027.
The shift has been visible for some time. Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) has already opened up a commanding lead at the top of the liner rankings, while Maersk has pursued a more disciplined fleet strategy as it pushes deeper into integrated logistics. CMA CGM, by contrast, has continued to add capacity aggressively while expanding its terminals, logistics, air cargo and inland transport interests.
“Maersk’s fall in the rankings is entirely self-inflicted as it has failed to pivot away from its logistics integrator strategy despite the vastly superior earnings in the ocean business that their rivals continue to capitalise on,” commented Hua Joo Tan, the founder of Linerlytica.
Maersk’s fall in the rankings is entirely self-inflicted
Alphaliner currently ranks MSC first with around 7.3m teu, followed by Maersk at about 4.7m teu and CMA CGM at roughly 4.4m teu. The gap between Maersk and CMA CGM has narrowed to only a few hundred thousand slots, with the French carrier’s orderbook set to close the difference.
The likely change in ranking matters less for the number itself than for what it says about the industry. For decades, Maersk was the reference point in container shipping: the carrier others measured themselves against on scale, network design, operational discipline and strategic direction.
That era has already faded. MSC has redefined the scale of the sector, while CMA CGM has used the windfall from the pandemic years to build a broader transport group spanning ocean shipping, logistics and media.
For Saadé, it would also carry political and commercial weight. A family-controlled French carrier that was under severe pressure after the global financial crisis would have overtaken the former undisputed leader of the container shipping market.
“Maersk very clearly made the conscious choice not to retain the number one spot at any cost, and are now prepared to drop to number three, so they clearly do not believe that the costs of retaining the number two ranking outweighs the benefits,” commented Alan Murphy, CEO of liner consultancy Sea-Intelligence.
The achievement, however, will come with risks. Liner shipping is heading into another major delivery cycle, with a large global orderbook still to enter service. Capacity rankings do not measure profitability, capital discipline or schedule reliability.
“As we are likely heading into a cyclical downturn with abundant capacity, battening down the hatches, and focusing on profitable markets would seem like a sound choice,” said Murphy.
Maersk’s bet is that a leaner fleet tied to logistics and network control can produce better returns than chasing slot growth. CMA CGM’s bet is that scale, asset control and supply chain reach will matter more.