Global coal shipments rise year-on-year, driven by stronger demand from China and shifting energy market trends worldwide.
“In June 2026, global coal shipments rose 14% year-on-year, driven by a 41% increase in shipments to China, as the country sought to offset weaker domestic supply and meet higher demand for electricity generation. Since the start of the year, global coal shipments have increased 3% year-on-year, reversing last year’s trend, when they fell 4% year-on-year,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
According to BIMCO, coal shipments to China have fallen 3% year-on-year so far this year, with imports only accelerating from May 2026. The increase was driven by weaker domestic coal production, partly following a mining accident in Shanxi on 28 May 2026. After the incident, 109 mines in the province were temporarily shut down for safety inspections. Although some reopened in June, output appears to remain below pre-accident levels.
BIMCO also reported that coal shipments to Korea, Japan and the EU remained strong in June, increasing 25%, 13% and 15% year-on-year, respectively. This further supported global volumes. These markets have turned to alternative energy supplies amid tighter LNG shipments since March 2026, following transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
“The rise in coal volumes has had a positive impact on the dry bulk market, particularly in the panamax segment, as coal accounted for around half of the segment’s tonne-mile demand in June. This contributed to stronger freight rates, with S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Platts KMAX 9 Index rising 73% year-on-year in June,” says Gouveia.
Indonesia and Russia on the rise
On the export side, Indonesia and Russia recorded the largest increases in June, with shipments rising 12% and 33% year-on-year, respectively. Although the Indonesian government initially set a coal production target of 600 million tonnes for the year, 24% below 2025 levels, it announced in June that the production quota would be expanded.
According to Gouveia, the outlook for coal shipments during the remainder of the year is mixed. “Coal production in China could recover once safety inspections are completed, reducing import demand. Conversely, the arrival of El Niño is expected to boost coal demand in India and Southeast Asia. El Niño typically brings a weaker monsoon and has already contributed to India’s driest June in 12 years. This is expected to reduce hydroelectric power generation across the region,” he says.
“Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain a key uncertainty for the outlook for coal shipments, as a full and lasting reopening of the strait could reduce coal import demand in markets such as Korea, Japan and the EU. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement has already led to an increase in the number of ships transiting the strait, but operational and security challenges persist. A sustained return to normal transit conditions could also depend on a final peace agreement,” concludes Gouveia.
