Shippers face tighter capacity as trucking rates hold near record highs

Truck capacity is shrinking just as shippers most need room to grow. ACT Research’s June For-Hire Trucking Index shows freight rates holding near record territory while capacity keeps tightening, as Class 8 tractor sales continue running below replacement levels and new federal driver rules squeeze the labor pool. For shippers trying to expand volumes, the truck capacity shortage isn’t going away soon.

The survey converts monthly carrier responses into a diffusion index, where a reading above 50 signals growth and a reading below 50 signals contraction. A flat, unchanged month registers at exactly 50.

The Freight Rate Index fell 9.5 points month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 70.2 in June, down from May’s record 79.7. Even with the pullback, June’s reading ranks among the strongest in the survey’s nearly 17-year history. Market balance has swung decisively in favor of fleets this year, ACT Research said, adding that tight market dynamics are likely to continue to drive rates higher.

Truck Capacity Shortage Meets Record Freight Rates

The Capacity Index climbed 1.5 points to 55.0 in June, a 43-month high, even as Class 8 sales remain below replacement levels industrywide. The gain reflects larger, well-run fleets signaling expansion rather than a broad capacity rebound. ACT Research expects expansion to accelerate further in the third and fourth quarters as spot rate gains work through to contract rates and carriers replace aging equipment with EPA’27 emissions rules in mind.