BIMCO warns of growing pressure on dry bulk market

BIMCO warns that geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing disruptions are clouding the dry bulk market outlook for 2027 and 2028.

“Geopolitical disruptions continue to cloud the dry bulk market outlook. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty. At the same time, attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea have added further risks,” said Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.

Typically, around 4% of dry bulk demand moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative routes have softened the disruption’s impact but have not replaced pre-war volumes. The disruption has also tightened energy and fertiliser supplies, weighing on global economic growth and raising concerns about food security.

Given the uncertainty, BIMCO has developed two forecast scenarios. The ‘SoH closed’ scenario assumes that the strait remains effectively closed throughout 2027 and 2028. The ‘SoH open’ scenario assumes that ships can transit the strait freely from 2027 onwards.

This story was originally published by World Cargo News. Read the full story at World Cargo News →