Breakwave Bi-Weekly Dry Bulk Report - October 27, 2026

• Capesize Spot Index Stabilizes but Risk Remain Abound – The recent correction in Capesize spot rates appears to have established a floor, with the index stabilizing just below the 30,000 mark after a peak-to-trough decline of over 50%. While freight futures initially tracked this downward movement, front-month contracts are now trading at a premium to the spot index, signaling an anticipated revival in market activity and thus a potential increase in freight rates. This optimism aligns with historical seasonal strength over the next two months, which typically drives rates to annual peaks. However, because the current market baseline is underpinned by geopolitical supply-side constraints rather than structural demand growth, any meaningful upward breakout from these levels will require an incremental influx of physical cargo volumes while the supply side remains constraint. While this demand revival remains highly probable in the near term, ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose operational risks, particularly further down the curve, where high contract valuations, especially for the first quarter of next year, face increasing downside risk.

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