Diesel price pressures will linger into 2027, experts warn

Motor carriers need to brace for prolonged diesel price volatility and elevated operating costs that stretch well into 2027, driven by refining constraints, geopolitical chokepoints and structural supply deficits, according to industry executives and analysts at the WEX OTR Summit in Ponte Vedra, Fla., this week.

Denton Cinquegrana, director of energy research at Dow Jones Energy, noted that retail diesel prices hover in the range of $6.25 to $6.30 per gallon, well above the historical norm of about $4. With forward crude curves showing West Texas Intermediate pushing $90 a barrel, and Brent crude topping $100 for 2027 contracts, Cinquegrana warned that quick normalization is unlikely.

“We could say this is over tomorrow and it’s still going to take several months [before any impact is felt],” Cinquegrana said. “Inventories here in the U.S. and globally will need to be filled, too. That’s going to keep a floor under demand for the foreseeable future”.

Global chokepoints have hindered refined fuel distribution. While crude oil continues to flow, attacks on Russian refining infrastructure and rising risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have trapped finished product, extended shipping routes by weeks and inflated tanker insurance premiums.

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