Dry Bulk Shipping: Escalating attacks on ships heighten uncertainty
“Geopolitical disruptions continue to cloud the dry bulk market outlook. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the largest source of uncertainty, while attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the Black…
Typically, around 4% of dry bulk demand sails via the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative routes have softened the impact of the disruption but have been unable to replace pre-war volumes. The disruption has also tightened energy and fertiliser supplies, weighing on global economic growth and raising concerns over food security.
Given the uncertainty, BIMCO presents two forecast scenarios. The “SoH closed” scenario assumes that the strait remains effectively closed throughout 2027 and 2028, while the “SoH open” scenario assumes that ships can freely transit the strait from 2027 onwards.
“We expect the dry bulk supply/demand balance to gradually weaken in 2027 and 2028, although from a high baseline. Cargo volume growth is expected to be limited, while ship deliveries accelerate, particularly in the capesize segment,” says Gouveia.
In 2027, ship demand is forecast to grow 0.5-2.5% if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, compared with supply growth of 3-4%. If the strait reopens, both demand and supply growth are expected to be 1 percentage point higher. In this scenario, demand would grow faster for commodities other than coal supported by improved economic conditions and stronger import demand from countries in the Persian Gulf. However, the fleet currently trapped in the Gulf would begin operating as normal and sailing speeds could remain slightly higher than in our other scenario, increasing supply.
This story was originally published by Hellenic Shipping News. Read the full story at Hellenic Shipping News →
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