El Niño 2026–27: Why humanitarian airlift planning must start before the weather turns

The World Meteorological Organisation expects El Niño to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026 and to persist into early 2027. The resulting droughts, floods and crop damage could push 49 million more people into acute food insecurity, bringing the total to 274 million across 45 countries by the end of 2027, according to the World Food Programme.

For humanitarian aviation, the main concern is how many crises could unfold at the same time. Flooding in the southern United States, fire risk across the Amazon and food emergencies on several continents could all draw on the same pool of suitable aircraft, airport capacity and specialist resources. Aid agencies increasingly act on forecasts like these, and with good reason – WFP estimates that every US$1 invested in anticipatory action can result in up to US$7 in avoided losses.

From forecast to flight plan Knowing that a storm is coming is useful, but planners need to know what it will do to the places aid has to pass through. Can the nearest airport stay open? Will aid be able to move onward from there, and how many people depend on the route in question?

“Forecasts give us a window to get our plans in order before we lose access,” Bolton-Wilson says. “If you start planning once that has already happened, it’s a race against the clock with far fewer options.”

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