Kearney, MIT put US driverless truck cost parity at 2028

Kearney and the MIT Mobility Initiative project that autonomous trucks will match the per-mile cost of trucks with drivers in the US around 2028, according to a report released Nov. 5. Their model puts a driverless truck at $4 a mile in 2026, against $2.50 for a conventional truck, with the two crossing at roughly $2.60 in 2028.

The forecast adds a date to the cost case for long-haul fleets, where about half of a US truck’s cost per mile goes to the driver, according to the report. Commercial deployment is still narrow and geographically concentrated, the authors write, though Aurora’s trucks have logged more than 500,000 driverless miles on public roads.

The US crosses first, two years before Europe and four before the Middle East, because its drivers cost the most. A fully loaded US long-haul driver, including roughly 30% in benefits, costs about $10,000 a month, about twice the European cost and four times the Middle East cost, the report says.

The conventional side of the cost comparison starts near current rates. ATRI’s Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking: 2026 Update put the industry-average cost to run a truck at a record $2.336 per mile in 2025, up 3.4% from 2024, a figure FreightWaves used to explain why rates are rising without more freight. Kearney’s model starts at $2.50 a mile for 2026 and rises with inflation to $3.50 by 2035.

This story was originally published by FreightWaves. Read the full story at FreightWaves →