“No shipping: No shopping”

That was the stark warning issued by Tim Marshall, a UK-based author and broadcaster, in his keynote address at the International Association of Ports and Harbours World Ports Conference 2026 held in London last week.

In a wide-ranging address entitled “prisoners of Geography”, Marshall focused on how geographical elements and geopolitical issues were increasingly affecting world trade and shipping networks. “I can give you certainty that there will always be uncertainty, but I have to confess that this latest period is probably the most challenging I have ever known,” he said.

“The number of shocks [faced by shipping] since the international financial crisis of 2008, including Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, the conflict between Israel and Gaza (October 2023) and the war between US/Israel and Iran (2026) are unprecedented and a perfect storm.”

He pointed to the severe challenges faced by shipping companies and considerable disruption caused to global supply chains and hence imports and exports from services being away from the Suez Canal following the Israel/Gaza crisis and more recently the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “Future conflicts could embroil China”, he said, “as the country’s access to the open ocean is to some extent restricted by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines.”

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