Oil Markets Caught Between Iran War Risks and Emergency SPR Releases

Crude oil gave back ground on Thursday as traders weighed emergency supply against tentative efforts to reopen talks with Iran. Neither side has taken control. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is delivering barrels, but the reserve is near its lowest level since 1982. Peace efforts have resurfaced, but no agreement has been reached, and the threat to regional shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure remains.

On Friday, at 00:05 GMT, December WTI crude oil futures are trading at $102.77, down $0.67 or -0.65% for the week. The contract reached $103.92 last week. Brent settled Thursday at $114.88 a barrel, down $0.44 on the day.

The market has spent most of the week pricing the same two-sided trade. Bullish traders see lower Hormuz flows, attacks around Saudi Arabia, low distillate inventories, and a reserve system being used heavily to keep supply available. Bearish traders see SPR barrels entering the market and renewed diplomatic contact between Washington, Tehran and Qatar. For now, neither side has produced the one development needed to force a decisive move in prices.

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