Renewable refinery capacity to triple by 2030 as alternative fuels demand grows, says GlobalData

Alternative fuels are becoming central to the transition toward clean energy as governments, companies, and end users seek lower-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels. Supported by their growing prominence in the energy transition, global renewable refinery production capacity is forecast to increase from 11,716.0 million gallons per year (mmgy) in 2025 to 35,358.9 mmgy by 2030, according GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s Strategic Intelligence report, “Alternative Fuels in Energy Transition,” defines alternative fuels as transport fuels that do not originate from crude oil. The report focuses on biofuels, including renewable fuels like renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels, which can reduce lifecycle emissions across road, aviation, and marine transport.

Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The transportation sector remains especially important for oil and gas companies because it accounted for 46% of global petroleum product demand in 2025, rising to 55% when international bunkers are included. As road vehicles, aircraft, and vessels cannot all transition away from liquid and gaseous fuels at the same pace, alternative fuels provide a practical route to lower emissions while maintaining fuel reliability, range, and operational flexibility.”

Biofuels offer the most immediate opportunity because they can be blended into existing fuel systems with limited infrastructure changes. Renewable diesel and SAF, both produced using biomass in a renewable refinery, lead the near-term pathways where drop-in compatibility matters. Over the longer term, low-carbon hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels are expected to support hard-to-electrify sectors such as marine shipping and aviation.

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