Sea-Intelligence: IMF Outlook: Container Shipping Under Strain

In issue 787 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the IMF October 2026 WEO report, from a container shipping perspective. The report predicts that world trade volume growth will drop from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2027. In advanced economies, import demand is projected to be 5.0% in 2026 but soften to 4.2% in 2027. This means that demand is not growing fast enough to absorb all the newly built vessel capacity entering service.

Direct bilateral trade between the US and China has also contracted because of the trade war. As shown in Figure 1, after new tariffs were put in place in 2025, Chinese exports sent directly to the US fell by ‑22% over 12 months. During that same period, US exports to China dropped by ‑25%. However, overall trade volumes did not collapse, because the production went to other places. Chinese producers redirected 52% of their products to other Asian countries, and US exporters redirected 17%. Instead of shipping directly from China to the US, manufacturers are now sending parts to countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The products are put together there and then shipped to the US. This keeps trade volumes steady, but for the manufacturers and shippers, this makes logistics much more complicated, adds extra stops at ports, and increases costs.

This story was originally published by Container News. Read the full story at Container News →