Smuggler Tactics Make a Mass Casualty in English Channel "Inevitable"

The commander of the United Kingdom’s Border Security Command has warned the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee that it is only a matter of time before there is a mass casualty disaster in the English Channel – and it will probably occur this winter once sea conditions in the Channel worsen. Major General Duncan Capps was speaking to the committee on October 21.

General Capps’ concern has arisen because of new tactics being employed by the smuggler gangs who organize the illegal immigrant crossings. In recent months the smugglers have employed much bigger rubber boats, and are now using much longer crossing routes, tactics designed to lessen the risk of interception by French National Gendarmerie forces.

Whereas before a typical crossing was made between Dunkirk and Dover, a distance of about 25 nautical, with about 60 illegals on board, the smugglers are now cramming in over 200 illegals and taking a course between Normandy beaches and the English South Coast, a distance of over 80 nautical miles. One of these fragile boats has been recorded as having 230 migrants on board.

The smugglers when they used shorter routes were able to forecast when conditions might be favorable for the duration of the passage. But over the much longer route, it is much harder for smuggling bosses, let alone national weather forecasters, to accurately predict how long a window of calm weather might prevail. This was the same problem faced by General Eisenhower when he had to determine when to launch D-Day – over exactly the same stretch of water, though in reverse.

This story was originally published by The Maritime Executive. Read the full story at The Maritime Executive →