Super El Niño May Soften Winter Energy Squeeze

IEA’s Birol: Energy Prices Won’t Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027

We extensively covered the unusually strong El Niño, its weather impacts by region, and the risks this adverse weather poses to crop production and global food inflation.

UBS's energy team hosted a call Tuesday with meteorologist James Block to assess El Niño impacts for weather markets. The discussion comes amid a global refining crisis and continued disruptions to Strait of Hormuz energy flows, with European natural gas futures approaching 90 euros per megawatt-hour this week.

Block offered some relief to energy consumers as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter. He expressed high confidence that warmer-than-normal conditions will be present across several major energy-demand regions, including the northern US, Europe and parts of Asia. That could moderate heating demand as energy supplies, such as heating oil, remain tight.

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