Tanker Fleet Growth Threatens Freight Boom, Bullish Secondhand Markets: Analysts

A wave of tanker deliveries is set to test whether geopolitical disruption and longer trading routes can continue supporting charter rates and ship values, according to S&P Global Energy CERA’s latest fleet outlook, after an extraordinary freight market rally pushed some secondhand ship values above newbuilding order prices.

Taking newbuild order books and scrapping into account, CERA analysts forecast global tanker capacity will rise from 703.72 million deadweight tons at the end of 2025 to 743.56 million dwt in 2026, 778.35 million dwt in 2027 and 830.61 million dwt in 2028, before reaching 862.98 million dwt in 2029. That would represent cumulative growth of 22.6% over four years.

“The tanker market is entering a transition from scarcity-led strength to a period in which demand must work much harder to absorb supply,” according to the fleet outlook published on Oct. 28. “The critical issue is not whether supply will grow, it clearly will, but whether ton-mile demand, scrapping, sanctions-related inefficiencies and operational segmentation can absorb that growth without a material decline in utilization and freight rates.”

Record rates Tanker rates across segments have risen to record levels following the outbreak of the US-Iran war at the end of February, boosted by increased ship requirements as Asian importers seek barrels from farther afield and Middle Eastern producers rely on ship-to-ship transfers to mitigate transit risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

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