UBS’s new Brent price forecasts as Middle East supply risk supports oil prices

UBS raised its forecasts and now expects prices to stay near $110 a barrel at year-end, citing volatile Middle East supply, falling inventories and record freight rates.

In a new note, strategist Giovanni Staunovo lifted the year-end Brent target to $110 from $100. The bank also raised its March 2027 forecast to $95 from $90, its June 2027 forecast to $90 from $85, and its September 2027 forecast to $85 from $80. UBS widened the to $10 for December, while keeping a $4 discount for 2027.

Middle Eastern crude flows have recovered to close to 18.8 million barrels per day in early October, compared with 19.9 million before the conflict.

However, at least 30 attacks on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz were reported in October, the highest monthly number on record.

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