US waiver eases risks for India, China, but won’t alter Russian crude flows

The US waiver on Russian crude has reduced uncertainty for Indian and Chinese refiners, giving them greater confidence to continue purchasing economically attractive Russian grades while keeping alternative supply options open in case the situation changes, analysts and industry sources said Oct. 22.

The waiver is expected to preserve, rather than materially alter, Russian crude flows to India and China. While it reduces the possibility of a sudden disruption to global oil supplies, the potential for the waiver to be reversed means political and compliance risks would continue to influence trade, shipping and pricing decisions.

“For refiners in India and China, the waiver is really about reducing the uncertainty rather than changing the crude supply picture,” said Premasish Das, executive director for oil analytics at S&P Global Energy CERA. “Russian barrels were already flowing into these markets, but the waiver removes an immediate concern and gives refiners more confidence to continue buying grades that make economic sense.”

“However, as the legislation remains in place, refiners may still want to keep alternative supply options open in case the situation changes,” Das said.

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