World Bank: 2026 Global Commodity Prices to Rise 23%

Global commodity prices are set to surge 23% in 2026, the World Bank said on Wednesday, citing rising energy prices and disruptions to cargo shipping during the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea and high demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

Oil, natural gas, food and metals prices all rose sharply this year as global shocks mounted, the World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. It said the situation could worsen if the conflict in the Middle East ratcheted up and damage to Russian oil infrastructure continued.

Commodity prices were expected to ease by 7% next year, it said, but continued shocks - including forecasts for the worst El Niño weather effect since 1950 - could keep food commodity prices elevated, raising the specter of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.

The global economy was more vulnerable to future supply shocks at the moment. Global oil stocks have been depleted during the war in the Middle East, and global oil supply is expected to drop 5.2% in 2026, the biggest drop in four decades outside the 2020 global recession, the bank said.

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