Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to hit a new all-time record this month, driven by retailers stocking up ahead of expected tariff increases, a retail trade group says.
“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release.
The ongoing conflict in Iran is stoking supply chain impacts, Gold said, testing consumer resilience.
“Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits,” he said.
While the temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February expire July 24, a new round of tariffs regarding forced labor in 60 countries are expected to be imposed by the Trump administration as early as August.
U.S. ports in May handled container volume of 2.24 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs), an increase of 14.9% from a year earlier. That’s when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs cut imports sharply. May traffic was 10.1% better than April.
The NRF estimates June volume at 2.33 million TEUs, up 18.7% y/y, bringing first-half volume to 12.77 million TEU, a gain of 2% from the same period in 2025.
A 3.3% projected import increase puts July volume at 2.47 million TEUs, which would top the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEUs set in May 2022, as the U.S. emerged from the pandemic. as the economy bounced back from the pandemic. August imports are expected to drop 4.5% to 2.22 million TEUs, while September traffic is forecast at 1.99 million TEU, down 5.7% y/y.
October is expected 3.8% weaker at 1.99 million TEUs, and November lower by 5.2%, at 1.92 million TEUs.
Port labor disputes and tariff increases in recent years have moved the peak shipping season from around October to the May through July period.
Imports totaled 25.4 million TEUs in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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