74% of This Year’s Iron Ore Growth Came from Outside the Big Four Miners

Sixteen major miners added about 23 Mt in the first nine months of 2026. The Big Four managed just 0.6 Mt between them. Onslow, Simandou and India’s NMDC did the heavy lifting.

The 2026 iron ore supply narrative still looks comfortable on the surface. The numbers tell a different story.Sixteen major mining entities produced about 1,017 Mt in the first nine months, up roughly 23 Mt year-on-year (2.3%). Around 8 Mt of the gain came from India’s NMDC, most of it sold at home, so the seaborne increase was closer to 15 Mt.

Rio Tinto Pilbara, BHP WAIO, Fortescue and Vale’s own mines — the Big Four — added just 0.6 Mt between them, and all of that came from a weak first quarter. MinRes’s Onslow and Guinea’s Simandou delivered about 20.4 Mt of the increase. The growth has shifted. It is no longer coming from the Big Four.

1. A net ~23 Mt increase, with 0.6 Mt from the Big Four Eight of the 16 operations grew, eight fell. Gross gains were about 38.3 Mt, declines 15.3 Mt — so cuts wiped out 40% of the additions. The gains were tightly concentrated. Onslow, Simandou SimFer and WCS together added roughly 20.4 Mt (53% of the gross increase). Throw in NMDC’s 8.1 Mt and those four names delivered 74% of the growth.

This story was originally published by Hellenic Shipping News. Read the full story at Hellenic Shipping News →