Slowing Growth in Steel Output Ex-China

As we discussed in Commodore Research's most recent Weekly Executive Report, global steel production totaled approximately 142.4 million tons in September. This is down month-on-month by 1.8 million tons (-1%) and but up year-on-year by 600,000 tons. Steel production ex-China totaled approximately 68.8 million tons. This is down month-on-month by 800,000 tons (-1%) but up year-on-year by 500,000 tons (1%).

Steel production ex-China has now increased on a year-on-year basis for six straight months. Previously, it had contracted on a year-on-year basis for two straight months. China’s steel output remains in a contraction however.

Indian steel output totaled 13.9 million tons last month. This is down month-on-month by 900,000 tons (-6%) but is up year-on-year by 300,000 tons (2%). Production has now grown on a year-on-year basis for forty-three straight months.

Overall, it is reasonable to expect that steel output ex-China will soon be back in a contraction. We remain concerned for iron ore trade prospects. It is not just price that is low (which is affecting things on the supply side). Demand is also decreasing.

This story was originally published by Breakwave Advisors. Read the full story at Breakwave Advisors →