Analysis: Flatlining Indonesian high speed rail ridership complicates future expansion plans

INDONESIA: The ‘Whoosh’ high speed line has carried 18.2 million passengers since opening three years ago, but daily ridership has plateaued below initial forecasts. While the quantum of train services running has increased, weak load factors and project debt now complicate plans for route extensions.

The Whoosh high speed line connecting Jakarta and Bandung marked its third anniversary on October 17, having carried 18.2 million passengers since its opening as the fastest railway in southeast Asia.

Ridership has plateaued at 17 000 daily passengers since 2024, far short of forecasts. KCIC, which built and operates the line, originally projected 61 000 daily passengers at the project’s outset. A 2021 review adjusted that estimate downward to just over 30 000 following the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Since opening in 2023, KCIC has significantly increased the number of services it runs, from 14 daily trips at the start to 62 services per day since February 2025. However, passenger numbers have not followed. Dividing the seats on offer (601 per train) by the yearly passengers shows many of the extra seats remain empty. The average load factor fell from 61% in 2024 to around 45% for the following two years.

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