Baltic routes, importer shifts and El Niño test grain markets

Black Sea flows remain minimal The Black Sea picture is stark. Vessels sit at anchor offshore, waiting to enter the Danube to load, and the backlog is large. Ukrainian shipments from Izmail and Reni are vital for the export campaign, though volumes are relatively low. Only a few Russian shipments have been observed through the Black Sea during October, while Baltic Sea activity remains elevated.

Fleet data shows a shift in vessel size rather than a fall in vessel numbers. The count of vessels in the Black Sea has not dropped, despite recent attacks on ships. Total deadweight is slipping slightly, because the Danube trade relies on smaller vessels.

Romania and Bulgaria are the bright spots. Romanian exports are strong and Bulgarian outflows are stable. The TTS terminal in Romania ships domestic product and also transships Ukrainian grain that arrives by barge from the Danube.

Ukraine faces a structural limit. The Danube river ports cannot export the same volume that its three major Black Sea ports can handle. Due to low prices and storage considerations, some farmers are reportedly delaying the corn harvest.

This story was originally published by Hellenic Shipping News. Read the full story at Hellenic Shipping News →