Breakwave Bi-Weekly Tanker Report - November 3, 2026

• VLCC Remain Strong on Low Vessel Availability, Geopolitics – The recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports has yet to restore normal tanker circulation, with October flows through Hormuz averaging approximately 11.7 million barrels/day, up from 9.8 million barrels/day in September but below the pre-war level of 14.5 million barrels/day. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern VLCC tonne-miles remain 34% below 2025 levels and tonne-days 24% below pre-war levels, highlighting the disconnect between exceptionally high freight and underlying transportation demand. Around 80 VLCCs remain engaged in Gulf-of-Oman shuttle operations, with average round voyages extending to 23 days against an optimal 9–10 days, while offshore transfer bottlenecks and dedicated producer-controlled employment continue to constrain spot availability. Geopolitical risk remains the principal driver of exceptional VLCC freight rather than stronger underlying cargo demand. Longer voyage cycles, offshore transfer delays and owners' reluctance to accept employment inside the Gulf continue to reduce effective vessel supply. The latest tightening therefore reflects restricted fleet productivity and owner participation rather than stronger tonne-mile demand. With security incidents continuing around Hormuz, the recent freight rebound leaves limited evidence of sustained transportation-cost relief.

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