Brent at $77/bbl Next Year: ING’s 3 calls for energy markets

Oil markets have been on a roller coaster this year given events in the Middle East. However, we are going into year-end with oil flows from the region near pre-war levels despite the lack of a deal between the US and Iran. While oil flows are normalising, the way oil is coming out of the region is anything but normal, which is reflected in the surge in tanker shipping rates, given the very inefficient oil flows.

Our base case assumes occasional flare-ups between the US and Iran, meaning a full normalisation of Persian Gulf supplies remains some way off and the oil market is likely to retain a degree of risk premium. However, provided there are no significant or prolonged disruptions, we expect the market surplus to build over the course of 2027, leaving Brent to average around $77/bbl. A deal between the US and Iran would add further downside risk to this view.

Our risky call: OPEC will see more member exits We believe harmony within OPEC could be tested, with the possibility of further members leaving the group. This follows the UAE’s departure earlier this year. Post-Persian Gulf disruptions, any breakdown or weakening of the group risks adding more supply to the market, which would potentially leave further downside to our base case price forecasts for Brent in 2027.

This story was originally published by Hellenic Shipping News. Read the full story at Hellenic Shipping News →