China’s 2026 Thermal Coal Imports: 295 Mt Hinges on Winter Restocking
We retain a range of 285–310 million tonnes (Mt) for China’s 2026 seaborne thermal coal imports, with 295 Mt as our conditional central case. Extending October’s arrival pace gives 288.96 Mt. Winter restocking could…
By 30 October, China-bound Panamax thermal coal volumes were almost flat year on year, but a longer average haul had lifted estimated tonne-miles by 1.52%. At 295 Mt, the choice of loading area and vessel size could still raise or reduce the Panamax workload this winter.
Signal Ocean voyage estimates, including lignite and all anthracite. Full-month observations end in September. October extends the observed pace to month-end. November’s median share of November–December arrivals in 2021–25 splits the two months. The grey line in the annual panel marks the October-pace estimate (288.96 Mt).
By 07:08 UTC on 30 October, provisional 2026 arrivals totalled 236.05 Mt. October accounted for 24.72 Mt over 29.30 days, or 0.844 Mt/day. The required rates cover the remaining 62.70 days of 2026.
Seasonality and the timing of customs imports informed the revision from 270–290 Mt. Three equally weighted seasonal estimates give 295.75 Mt. In tests for 2022–25 using revised voyage records, the October-pace method had a smaller mean absolute error than the seasonal method (6.50 Mt against 8.03 Mt). Both undershot arrivals in all four years, leaving room for a winter increase. Its size depends on coastal buying.
This story was originally published by Hellenic Shipping News. Read the full story at Hellenic Shipping News →
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