Could India’s steel ‘Vision 2047’ create the next breakthrough for dry bulk demand?

On 10 October 2026, the government released the draft National Steel Policy: Vision 2047 for public consultation, with ambitious targets. The vision projects steelmaking capacity to surge from the current 220 million tonnes to 604 million tonnes by 2047, while crude steel production is expected to reach 531 million tonnes (up from 164 million tonnes in 2025). The policy also projects annual iron ore demand of 772 million tonnes, coking coal demand of 236 million tonnes and scrap consumption of 123 million tonnes.

India’s crude steel production For dry bulk shipping, the key question is not whether India can produce more steel. The country has established itself as the world’s second-largest steel producer. The more important question is whether India can secure the enormous quantities of raw materials required to support this expansion, and where those raw materials will come from.

In our previous analysis, we had highlighted that India’s iron ore market was undergoing a structural transition. As domestic steelmakers are absorbing a larger share of locally produced ore, exports are declining and imports are rising. Iron ore exports fell from 52 million tonnes in 2020 to 27 million tonnes in 2025, while imports increased to more than 12 million tonnes. The shift was beginning to support longer-haul imports from Brazil and increasing the role of Capesize vessels in India’s import trade.

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