DNV: Testing fleet strategies against an uncertain energy transition

A case study in DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 examines how different regulatory, fuel market and energy transition scenarios could affect fleet renewal strategies for very large crude carriers (VLCCs).

The analysis explores how shipowners can use DNV’s framework to assess costs and transition risks when making long-term investment decisions:

The scenario-based framework supports the assessment of transition risk and the identification of fuel and technology pathways that balance cost and risk at fleet level. The analysis shows that fleet strategies can perform very differently depending on how the energy transition unfolds, with markedly different outcomes across the defined slow- and rapid-transition scenarios.

“The case study also highlights how the cost and risk assessment outputs can be combined into an overall strategy score for more robust decision-making,” says Øyvind Sekkesæter, Senior Consultant at DNV and lead author of this year’s Maritime Forecast report.

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