Dry Bulk Supply: Heavier Deliveries, but Ageing Fleet Offers a Buffer

Dry bulk supply growth has remained relatively manageable over the past three years, but the market is now moving into a more challenging phase as the orderbook expands and the delivery schedule becomes heavier. Across the Handysize, Supramax/Ultramax, Panamax/Kamsarmax and Capesize/Newcastlemax segments, the combined fleet has grown from approximately 972.4 mills DWT at the end of 2023 to around 1.066 bn DWT currently, an increase of about 9.6%. Annual fleet growth remained close to 3% in both 2024 and 2025 before accelerating modestly so far in 2026. The main feature of this expansion is not simply its pace, but its uneven distribution. Handysize capacity has grown much faster than the rest of the fleet since end-2023, while Capesize/Newcastlemax supply has expanded considerably more slowly. At the same time, the forward orderbook has shifted in the opposite direction, with the greatest future supply exposure now concentrated in the larger segments. This suggests that the composition of fleet growth over the next two years could look quite different from what the market has experienced recently. Low demolition has so far allowed most newbuilding deliveries to translate almost directly into fleet expansion. Around 33.3 mills DWT was delivered in 2024 against only 3.8 mills DWT recycled, followed by 35.9 mills DWT of deliveries and 5.3 mills DWT of demolition in 2025. During 2026 to date, approximately 32.9 mills DWT has already entered the fleet, while only 2.8 mills DWT has exited. This persistent lack of recycling has kept net additions close to 30 mills DWT per year. The forward picture is more demanding.…

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