Goldman Hikes Oil Forecasts on ‘Substantial’ Risks to Supply

Nov 2, 2026 (Bloomberg) –Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised oil-price forecasts for the year-end and 2027 on elevated risks to supplies, joining other banks in hiking their outlooks after months of war in the Middle East.

Brent is now seen at $105 a barrel in December, up from a previous estimate of $90, and will average $88 next year, 10% more than seen before, analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note, which also increased forecasts for US oil marker West Texas Intermediate.

“Substantial downside supply risks are likely to sustain a large, near-term risk premium,” the analysts wrote. The markets are assigning “increasing weight to escalation after the Nov. 3 US midterms and subsequent potential weakness in Mideast supply,” they added in the Nov. 1 report.

Global benchmark Brent rallied 14% in October, hitting a six-month high, even as crude supplies from the Middle East rebounded close to pre-war levels. The gains came on concern that hostilities between the US and Iran may flare up again after the midterm elections, with President Donald Trump repeatedly hinting that he may resume airstrikes. For his part, Iran’s supreme leader has ordered his top commanders to prepare for renewed confrontation.

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