Humanitarian airlifts must commence before El Niño weather effects hit

One of the strongest El Niño events on record could peak towards the end of 2026.

Cam Bolton-Wilson, Vice President of Government & Humanitarian, Americas at Chapman Freeborn, is warning the industry how severe weather disrupt can humanitarian supply routes and what can be planned in advance and why aviation decisions made only after a crisis begins may already come too late.

The World Meteorological Organisation expects El Niño to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026 and to persist into early 2027. The resulting droughts, floods and crop damage could push 49 million more people into acute food insecurity, bringing the total to 274 million across 45 countries by the end of 2027, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).

For humanitarian aviation, the main concern is how many crises could unfold at the same time. Flooding in the southern United States, fire risk across the Amazon and food emergencies on several continents could all draw on the same pool of suitable aircraft, airport capacity and specialist resources. Aid agencies increasingly act on forecasts like these, and with good reason. The WFP estimates that every US$ 1 invested in anticipatory action can result in up to US$ 7 in avoided losses.

This story was originally published by Air Cargo Week. Read the full story at Air Cargo Week →