Indonesia thermal coal tightness shifts from underground to above ground

Indonesia’s thermal coal output is expected to fall in 2026, but the decline in seaborne supply could prove more pronounced, highlighting a widening disconnect between headline production and the volume of coal actually available to overseas buyers.

Indonesia’s 2026 coal production is expected to be about 720 million metric tons, above the initial 600 million mt RKAB target but below the 2025 production of about 790 million mt. At the same time, S&P Global Energy CERA expects thermal coal exports could fall toward 445 million mt, more than 50 million mt lower year over year, as regulatory approvals, domestic requirements and logistics restrict the volume reaching the international market.

Supply filters The issue is not merely that Indonesia is producing less coal. It is that an increasingly complex set of regulatory, logistical and quality constraints can make the internationally available supply pool tighter than the headline production decline alone would suggest.

“The emerging constraint is therefore less about the amount of coal underground than the series of regulatory, logistical and commercial filters between the mine and an export vessel,” said an international trader dealing with Indonesian cargoes.

This story was originally published by Hellenic Shipping News. Read the full story at Hellenic Shipping News →