Maersk cashes in on congestion-driven capacity squeeze, lifts 2026 outlook

A.P. Moller-Maersk has sharply raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance after higher freight rates and congestion-driven capacity constraints boosted third-quarter performance across its shipping, logistics and terminal businesses.

The Danish shipping group now expects underlying EBITDA of US$14 billion-US$14.5 billion, up from its previous forecast of US$10.5 billion-US$12.5 billion. Its underlying EBIT outlook has increased to US$8 billion-US$8.5 billion from US$4.5 billion-US$6.5 billion.

The upgrade follows a strong third quarter in which group revenue rose 27% year-on-year to US$18.1 billion. EBITDA increased to US$4.7 billion from US$2.7 billion, while EBIT climbed to US$3.3 billion from US$1.3 billion, taking the EBIT margin to 18.1%.

The improvement was driven primarily by stronger Ocean earnings as higher spot freight rates and port congestion tightened effective vessel capacity. Severe typhoon activity across Asia disrupted port operations, with average global port waiting times peaking at 16.6 hours, the highest level since January 2023.

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