Nuclear ships only pay off under the IMO’s net-zero rules, UCL study finds

Nuclear propulsion can compete in container shipping only if an effective global emissions policy is in place and reactor costs fall sharply, according to new research from the UCL Energy Institute’s Shipping and Oceans Research Group. It is one of the most detailed total cost-of-ownership assessments of nuclear merchant shipping to date.

The report, Nuclear Reactors for Merchant Shipping: A Total Cost of Ownership Assessment of a Low-Carbon Pathway, compares a large container ship (14,500 to 19,999 TEU) with nuclear propulsion against conventional fuel oil and dual-fuel ammonia vessels. It uses a literature review, interviews with five UK-based experts in law, insurance, classification, technology development and industry representation, and a cost model run with and without the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF).

● Policy sets the business case. Without the NZF, no nuclear vessel is cheaper than a conventional ship, even at the lowest assumed reactor cost. Under the NZF, nuclear vessels earn income by selling surplus units to other ships, which closes the gap.

● Reactor cost decides the outcome. Published estimates range from about 2,600 to 12,400 USD per kWe, a spread of nearly five times. At the low end, which assumes series production and deep cost reductions, nuclear is the cheapest option from 2040. At the high end, which reflects first-of-a-kind reactors, it is not cheapest in any scenario.

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