The final quarter of 2026 is expected to see softer bauxite flows

Chinese front-loading is expected to have run its course, pointing to softer bauxite flows in 2026 Q4.

Bauxite arriving in India declined by 37.0% y/y in September, the largest y/y decrease of any month in 2026 so far.

Bauxite flows in September 2026 rose 3% to 20.4 Mt, driven by higher flows from Guinea. Flows fell m/m, but this was expected as September falls within the wet season, which typically reduces the ability of material to flow out of the ports. Compared to September 2025, flows from Guinea increased by over 20%.

China received a surge of seaborne bauxite inflows during September, reaching 19.7 Mt, up over 21% from the same period a year earlier. Disruptions to shipping norms in the Arabian Gulf have continued to affect bauxite arrivals in the UAE, and some regional processing facilities are operating below normal utilization levels, leading to a 60% drop in bauxite arrivals in September 2026.

This story was originally published by Breakwave Advisors. Read the full story at Breakwave Advisors →