The November 2026 midterm elections introduced yet another turning point in an already turbulent political and economic landscape

In November 2016, with the global economy still absorbing the aftershock of the Brexit referendum, the election of Donald Trump delivered a second political surprise. The initial reaction was one of alarm. As the count turned against expectations, US equity futures fell to their overnight limit, Tokyo suffered its sharpest session since the Brexit vote, Seoul followed it lower, and gold briefly rallied by almost 5 percent as investors sought refuge. Yet by the time European markets opened, the narrative had been rewritten. Investors chose to read the result as a promise of fiscal expansion, deregulation and a vast infrastructure programme rather than as a threat to the established order. European and American equities closed firmly higher, the dollar strengthened on expectations of reflation, and gold surrendered most of its overnight gains. Commodities divided along the same line. Iron ore surged to its highest level in almost two years on the prospect of infrastructureled demand and continued Chinese stimulus, while oil, still burdened by a persistent glut, drifted lower. For dry bulk, the timing was striking. Having touched a record low earlier that year, the Baltic Dry Index climbed from around 900 points on election day to a two-year high within ten days, and dry bulk equities enjoyed a speculative rally. The recovery, however, had begun before the vote, rooted in Chinese stimulus and restrictions on domestic coal output; the election amplified sentiment rather than creating demand. Beneath the optimism lay a more durable change. The threat of steep tariffs on Chinese goods introduced a new degree of policy unpredictability,…

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