The Risk of a Full-Scale Conflict With Iran is at its Peak

Shipowners, managers and seafarers need to have a sense of where the risk of a resumption of the U.S.-Iran war currently sits, and putting aside temptations to be precise with regard to timing, the risk of a resumption of full-scale war could not be higher than it is now - and it will stay at that level for the next week. And the initiative to restart the war could be taken by Israel, Iran, the United States or even, conceivably, the Gulf states themselves.

From a political perspective, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s desire to resume hostilities has been advertised by his clashes with the Israeli chief of staff. President Trump may be tempted to do so before seats change hands in Congress. Iran is under increasing pressure domestically as the oil money runs out and imports dry up, and could leverage a patriotic war as a diversion. Some of the Gulf states do not want to see any arrangement come into play that gives Iran more control over the Strait of Hormuz than it used to have, and they might move if they were threatened with a fait accompli or a deal to which they were not a party.

This story was originally published by The Maritime Executive. Read the full story at The Maritime Executive →