VLCCs: More Cargoes, Less Cover

Gulf cargo activity has recovered, but incoming ships have matched the increase. Employment per stem has shortened, and peace talks introduce a fresh risk for owners: a shrinking security premium before cargo demand strengthens.

More stems have not tightened the Gulf. Cargoes and incoming ballasters each increased by three, leaving the numerical balance one ship long. Average employment per stem fell 4.6%, while total Gulf vessel-days declined 1.0%. More recorded cargoes are absorbing less aggregate fleet time.

The global recovery lacks punch. Stems increased 0.6% and vessel-days rose 0.8%. Yet employment remains 6.6% below October 30. Demand has stabilised; it has not accelerated enough to establish a stronger negotiating position for owners.

Available tonnage remains decisive. The latest tracking update recorded seven Hormuz crossings on November 2, against eight the previous day, and eight likely-empty VLCCs off Fujairah. Ships are nearby, but position, suitability and willingness to transit determine how much capacity can compete.

This story was originally published by Breakwave Advisors. Read the full story at Breakwave Advisors →