Xeneta: No ‘sprint to the finish’ but October’s +6% rise in demand maintains air cargo’s steady pace of growth

October saw the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year growth in global air cargo volumes since the -3% dip in March after the escalation of the Middle East conflict closed Gulf airspace, but any hope of a further peak season boost appears to be diminishing, according to the latest market data from Xeneta.

Demand increased +6% year-on-year in October, but market conditions showed few signs of a sudden increase in capacity pressure, a surge in rates above the levels already seen across the year, or freight charter prices ‘hitting the roof’ that would signal a late peak in volumes, says Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw.

“The market is continuing its steady pace of growth, as we’ve been reporting since March. It’s strong, but it’s not a ‘peak’ season, and time is quickly running out for volumes to shift higher. I am already seeing Christmas trees and listening to Mariah Carey and Wham! as I travel through airport terminals,” he said.

Global air cargo spot rates (valid for up to one month) averaged USD 3.11 per kg in October, +29% higher than the same month a year ago. Year-on-year spot rate growth has now widened for two consecutive months, after narrowing from June to August. Spot rates rose +4% month-on-month as the market eased it ways into the fourth quarter.

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