Brazil should return to being the 10th largest economy after GDP results
Envato
Brazil should return to the position of 10th largest economy in the world in 2026, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) compiled by the consultancy Austin Ratings based on data from 45 countries.
The estimate was reinforced after the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1.1% in the first quarter of this year, a performance above what the market expected.
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In 2024 and 2025, the country had fallen to 11th place, after being surpassed by Russia and Canada.
The survey shows that Brazil should surpass Canada in the global ranking of the largest economies measured in current dollars.
Sixth biggest advance
Among the 45 countries analyzed by Austin Ratings, Brazil recorded the sixth highest economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous three months.
Brazilian performance was behind only Hong Kong, Taiwan, Denmark, South Korea and China. The advance also surpassed that of economies such as the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy.
According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Brazilian GDP grew 1.1% from January to March, driven mainly by the services sector and the recovery of investments.
Ranking global
According to IMF projections compiled by Austin Ratings, the ten largest economies in the world in 2026 should be:
- United States: US$32.399 trillion
- China: US$20.863 trillion
- Germany: US$5.455 trillion
- Japan: US$4.381 trillion
- United Kingdom: US$4.267 trillion
- India: US$4.158 trillion
- France: US$3.597 trillion
- Italy: US$2.739 trillion
- Russia: US$2.655 trillion
- Brazil: US$ 2.637 trillion
The difference between Brazil and Russia appears quite narrow in IMF estimates.
Exchange weight
The ranking considers GDP in current dollars. Therefore, in addition to economic growth, the exchange rate also directly influences the position of each country.
When the real appreciates against the dollar, the size of the Brazilian economy in American currency increases. The same happened with Russia in recent years, driven by the appreciation of the ruble and the rise in oil prices.
In April, the IMF recently revised Brazil’s growth projection in 2026, from 1.6% to 1.9%. If this pace is maintained, the expectation is that the country will reach ninth position in the world in 2027, overtaking Russia.
PIB per capita
Despite returning to the global top 10, Brazil remains far from the richest economies when the criterion is income per inhabitant.
According to the IMF, Brazilian GDP per capita was estimated at around US$10,685 in 2025, well below developed countries and even smaller economies in Europe. In the Monetary Fund ranking, Brazil is just below Albania, with GDP per capita of US$11,234 last year.
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