Disclosure
The global oil maritime transport market is experiencing one of the hottest moments in recent decades. Consultancy survey Maritime Strategies International (MSI) reveals that the hiring of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) reached historic levels in the first half of 2026, driven by expectations of future demand and the strong performance of Chinese shipyards.
Between January and June this year, orders were 177 supertankerstotaling 54.5 million deadweight tons (DWT). The volume already surpasses by a wide margin the old annual record, recorded in 2006when orders reached 32.6 million DWT.
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Currently, the order book represents approximately 35% of the world’s VLCC fleethighlighting the confidence of shipowners in the renewal and expansion of global oil transport capacity.
Market exceeds projections
Growth is not restricted to VLCCs. Considering all categories of tankers, orders accumulated in the first half of the year are already close to 80 million tons of deadweighta volume that exceeded the entire annual forecast previously prepared by MSI.
For the consultancy, the surprising performance demonstrates a strong resumption of investments in the segment, after years of greater caution on the part of shipowners.
Deliveries concentrated between 2028 and 2029
Despite the positive scenario for shipbuilding, MSI warns of possible future impacts on the market balance.
According to the survey, 83% of ships currently contracted are expected to be delivered between 2028 and 2029a period in which there may be a significant increase in the supply of vessels.
If the growth in demand for maritime oil transport does not keep pace, there is a risk of pressure on freight and a reduction in the sector’s profitability.
Western shipowners lead orders
The distribution of orders shows a relatively balanced market between different regions.
Os western shipowners accounted for approximately 50% of requests for VLCCs, while Greek shipowners and the asian buyers concentrated around 25% each.
The scenario reinforces that fleet renewal is a strategy shared by the main global oil transport operators.
China expands dominance in shipbuilding
If there is greater diversity among buyers, among builders the leadership is practically absolute.
MSI research points out that 89% of contracts signed in the first half of 2026 were destined for Chinese shipyardsconsolidating China’s position as the world’s main hub for the construction of supertankers.
Among the shipyards that received the most orders are:
- Hengli Shipbuilding – 55% of contracts;
- Jiangsu New Hantong – 14%;
- Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. – 11%.
The concentration highlights the technological advancement, high production capacity and competitiveness of Chinese shipyards, which have been expanding their participation in the main segments of the global naval industry.
Outlook for the sector
For the analyst Jialin Xufrom Maritime Strategies International, 2026 is proving to be a “surprising” year for the tanker market. The expert highlights that the strong growth in orders for VLCCs signals shipowners’ confidence in global oil trade, while at the same time reinforcing the predominance of the Chinese shipping industry in capturing new contracts.
Although the record volume of orders indicates optimism for shipbuilding, the behavior of global demand for oil and the international economy in the coming years will be decisive in defining the market balance when these vessels begin to be delivered, especially between 2028 and 2029.
