AI saved air cargo? Rates up 30% YOY

AI isn’t just for chatbots—it’s fueling a surprising boom in air cargo, preventing an anticipated recession. FreightWaves’ Eric Kulisch breaks down how global disruptions and AI equipment demand are driving rates up 30% year-over-year and volumes up 6%. Plus, find out how drone delivery leaders like Wing and Zipline are expanding partnerships with Walmart, racing to scale ultra-fast logistics ahead of new FAA regulations.

Air cargo rates are up 30% year over year and volumes have grown roughly 6%, driven by a combination of ocean disruptions, reduced Middle East carrier capacity, and surging demand for AI-related equipment, according to reporting from FreightWaves. The market’s strength has surprised analysts who expected a significant softening in 2025 following the post-COVID hangover of 2024.

The single biggest structural shift keeping air freight aloft is the rise of AI hardware shipments. As stricter customs and regulatory treatment of de minimis imports curtailed business-to-consumer parcel flows into the U.S. and Europe, AI equipment demand stepped in to fill the gap. Freight forwarder Kuehne+Nagel has also flagged slower automotive exports out of Europe as an additional headwind that AI cargo is helping to offset.

Two years ago, the de minimis crackdown was widely predicted to crater air freight and parcel volumes. That contraction never fully materialized. After a down year in 2024 as the COVID shipping boom faded, the market rebounded sharply at the end of that year and has continued through 2025, defying earlier bearish forecasts.

This story was originally published by FreightWaves. Read the full story at FreightWaves →