Autonomous Trucks Could Be Cheaper Than Human Drivers in U.S. by 2028

The per-mile cost to operate autonomous trucks in the U.S. could match that of trucks with human drivers as soon as 2028.

According to research from Kearney and the MIT Mobility Initiative, the cost to operate autonomous trucking in the U.S. sat around $4 a mile in 2026, compared to $2.50 a mile for human drivers, accounting for fuel use, employee benefits, insurance, and several other factors. However, autonomous trucking costs are expected to fall to $3.30 a mile in 2027, and then $2.60 the following year, while human-driven trucking costs could rise to $2.60 per mile next year, and $2.70 in 2028.

In Europe and the Middle East, the same cost crossover isn't expected to occur until closer to 2030 and 2032 respectively, given that driver costs are substantially lower in both regions compared to the U.S.

"Since about 50% of a U.S. truck’s cost per mile goes to the driver, the United States has much more cost to remove," Kearney explains. "Autonomy pays off first where drivers are expensive and in short supply."

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