Breakwave Bi-Weekly Dry Bulk Report - November 10, 2026

• Capesize Spot Rates Back Above 30,000 as Seasonality Kicks In – Although November has traditionally served as a strong period for dry bulk shipping, the recent recovery in spot rates actually commenced earlier than usual in mid-October, defying historical trends that typically point to late-month softness. Looking ahead, we anticipate sustained strength across the spot market for the remainder of November. This bullish momentum is further reflected in the futures curve, where December contracts are once again rallying toward the 40,000 mark and firstquarter pricing remains historically elevated. However, while market participants appear to be discounting traditional seasonality, we caution that the broader riskreward profile remains skewed to the downside as we enter the New Year. This vulnerability is driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties alongside unpredictable winter weather conditions, which present a critical industry-specific risk. Nevertheless, the dry bulk segment has demonstrated notable resilience amid recent geopolitical turmoil, maintaining far lower volatility than the frantic tanker sector. Ultimately, despite a robust newbuilding delivery schedule and negligible scrapping activity, tight supply-demand dynamics continue to support freight rates at highly profitable levels.

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