Carriers may secure only part of their November rate increases as Suez returns, Sogese report says

Freight rates to Europe have rebounded since early October after falling steadily from their July peak, but the conditions behind the rebound are mixed. Cargo demand is positive, with Far East to Europe volumes up 12.2% in the first seven months of the year, according to Xeneta. Ships, however, are arriving late, and the return of Suez routings is releasing capacity faster than schedules are recovering. In its November Europe Container Market Update, Sogese reads this as a market moving from a disruption premium to a capacity-management test, in which the price carriers announce and the price shippers actually pay are drifting apart. For Italian importers and exporters, the cost of delay and of choosing the wrong route can matter more than the headline ocean rate.

1. Carriers are testing prices, and November is the test Drewry’s World Container Index reached $4,585 per 40ft on 22 October, its highest in 15 weeks, and had fallen to $4,389 by 5 November, 4.3% below the peak. MSC filed FAKs of $4,500 to North Europe and $5,000 to the West Mediterranean and Adriatic for 1 to 14 November, and CMA CGM filed $4,900 for the West Mediterranean. Drewry’s assessments for Shanghai to Rotterdam ($3,615) and Shanghai to Genoa ($4,166) sit below those levels, and Drewry counted five announced Asia-Europe blank sailings for the following week, which it read as ample capacity that makes the increases uncertain.

A FAK is a carrier’s request. Until announced increases appear in what customers actually pay, Sogese treats the rebound as unconfirmed.

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